New Opportunities: Report Card

[gbejm]

The July 4 chart has run its course, so it's time to look back and see how the predictions held up.

• the economy returns as one of the top political issues: I discussed this briefly in my September post, and the situation has only intensified since then. Stores have in some cases resorted to staging their displays to hide their empty shelves.


• a new issue, not currently on the radar, arises for the Biden administration: I'm wondering if this concerns the seeming split between the president and vice-president. Even given the media's general tendency to treat the administration with kid gloves, there have been a strange number of stories and leaking rumors about tensions surrounding the vice-president and issues with her staff. I'm leery of counting this as a hit, though, since it's easy to relate a relatively vague prediction to something after the fact.


• opportunistic media outlets try to elbow their way into the market largely vacated by legacy firms, possibly fueled by a scoop regarding that new issue for the administration: I'm going to count this as more of a miss. The media did give us "Let's Go Brandon" and a popcorn-worthy spat between Joe Rogan and CNN (with the latter also garning dismal ratings these days), but I overstated the size of the shift here. Legacy media's implosion is on a slower trajectory so far.


• a diplomatic opportunity arises but gets squandered, potentially because of Congress: There were some interesting moves here. The Afghanistan withdrawal was potentially a difficult move that needed to be done, but the execution speaks for itself. There's also the AUKUS agreement, complementing the Quad and other existing partnerships, and the US's submarine deal with Australia. At the same time, the Biden administration's approach to Russia seems to involve little more than a stern wag of the finger. As far as negotiations with Iran go, at least based on appearances Iran looks far more willing to walk away from the table than the US. Lastly, the administration's strategy of canceling pipelines then begging OPEC to pump more oil has managed the neat trick of simultaneously annoying gas-dependent rural residents, climate change activists, and Canada.
  
  I'll count this as at least a partial miss, though, because Congress's involvement in foreign affairs has been pretty minimal lately. I think Gort appearing in the two houses turned out to mean a contrast, not an involvement. The parties in Congress at least managed to work with each other a little, while the administration hasn't achieved anything in its dealings with foreign adversaries.


• regardless, the parties in Congress manage to compromise on at least some issues: As shocking as this was for me to predict, Congress did end up passing an immense infrastructure spending bill.

I'll get the incoming 12/4 chart written up and posted in the next couple of days.