The Interlude Ends: Interim Report Card
Jul. 3rd, 2021 07:26 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
gbejmThe way I've been interpreting these charts, the March 4 chart still has two months to go. Tomorrow's chart will layer on top of it, so I wanted to pause and check where things stand so far.
Looking at things point by point...
General economic problems
Recently we have seen shortages of goods, while businesses struggle to find workers. Plausibly, those issues may abate as some of the expanded government programs expire, reversing the incentives they created. More worrying is the surge in inflation we've seen lately. Despite pundits latching onto the word "transitory" as if it were a magic talisman (to such an extent that I suggest people not try using that as a drinking game), there's no indication of that trend reversing yet.
So far, this prediction is on course.
The media and other state institutions will capitulate and follow someone else's lead, potentially the adminstration's
Major media outlets have been more blatant than usual about towing the party line these days. As one example, how many times did the proposed changes to Georgia's election laws get compared to Jim Crow? And how quickly did those comparisons stop once people took the obvious step of comparing the proposal to the laws already on the books in various blue states? As another example, other than the level of media coverage, is there any substantive difference in the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations' approaches to detaining minors crossing the border?
Likewise, this item is on course as well
A further surprise regarding health
This one is not yet clear. There are hints of potential side effects from the coronavirus vaccines. The data isn't clear as to how the rates of such problems compare to other vaccines or to the risks from a coronavirus infection. Given how poorly the supposed experts have handled the pandemic so far, I'm don't know if there is currently any institution in a position to both run a suitable investigation and convincingly report the outcome (whatever it may be).
A flurry of diplomatic activity that doesn't turn out to be helpful
The Biden administration already seemed overly eager to re-enter an agreement with Iran. Given the recent election of a hardline (even by Iranian standards) president, it seems unlikely that any resulting deal will be particularly favorable to the United States.
This one is at least partially on course too
Something unusual (but not currently clear what) regarding the administration itself
This is another unclear item, but there are some hints regarding Vice President Harris. Her performance on border issues has not been helpful, and there have been some recent rumors leaking about frictions within the administration.
So far, things seem to be trending in the directions suggested in the March reading. With tomorrow's chart, we'll see what new indications arise.
Looking at things point by point...
General economic problems
Recently we have seen shortages of goods, while businesses struggle to find workers. Plausibly, those issues may abate as some of the expanded government programs expire, reversing the incentives they created. More worrying is the surge in inflation we've seen lately. Despite pundits latching onto the word "transitory" as if it were a magic talisman (to such an extent that I suggest people not try using that as a drinking game), there's no indication of that trend reversing yet.
So far, this prediction is on course.
The media and other state institutions will capitulate and follow someone else's lead, potentially the adminstration's
Major media outlets have been more blatant than usual about towing the party line these days. As one example, how many times did the proposed changes to Georgia's election laws get compared to Jim Crow? And how quickly did those comparisons stop once people took the obvious step of comparing the proposal to the laws already on the books in various blue states? As another example, other than the level of media coverage, is there any substantive difference in the Obama, Trump, and Biden administrations' approaches to detaining minors crossing the border?
Likewise, this item is on course as well
A further surprise regarding health
This one is not yet clear. There are hints of potential side effects from the coronavirus vaccines. The data isn't clear as to how the rates of such problems compare to other vaccines or to the risks from a coronavirus infection. Given how poorly the supposed experts have handled the pandemic so far, I'm don't know if there is currently any institution in a position to both run a suitable investigation and convincingly report the outcome (whatever it may be).
A flurry of diplomatic activity that doesn't turn out to be helpful
The Biden administration already seemed overly eager to re-enter an agreement with Iran. Given the recent election of a hardline (even by Iranian standards) president, it seems unlikely that any resulting deal will be particularly favorable to the United States.
This one is at least partially on course too
Something unusual (but not currently clear what) regarding the administration itself
This is another unclear item, but there are some hints regarding Vice President Harris. Her performance on border issues has not been helpful, and there have been some recent rumors leaking about frictions within the administration.
So far, things seem to be trending in the directions suggested in the March reading. With tomorrow's chart, we'll see what new indications arise.